The Peak Season Is Still Here, But This Year Is Not For All E-cigarette Users.

Every year in September, the electronic cigarette factories in Shenzhen would become "hot". Workers would work overtime, production lines would be at full capacity, and the supply chain would be in a state of tension - this is what the industry calls "Golden September and Silver October".
But this year is different. The European ban has been accelerated, the US tariffs and state bans have been added, and the regulations in the Middle East and Southeast Asia have also tightened. The peak season that was originally for the entire industry is quietly changing.
"Golden September and Silver October" still exists, but it no longer belongs to all. Instead, it has become a targeted peak season for the leading and compliant players. This reveals a profound transformation in the industry landscape.
"Golden September and Silver October" still exists, but it no longer belongs to the previous "Golden September and Silver October" of the entire industry. It is now the peak season that electronic cigarette factories most look forward to. Regardless of large or small enterprises, they all receive concentrated orders in the last four months of the year: orders pile up overnight until the end of the year. The supply chain is tense, workers work overtime, and logistics are at full capacity. The industry is filled with the "boom of the peak season" atmosphere.
But this year's atmosphere is clearly different. The combination of the European ban, US tariffs and state bans, as well as the tightening of regulations in Southeast Asia, has turned a period that should have been a peak season into a watershed for the industry.
The triple blow from major markets in Europe The "one-time sales ban" in countries like the UK and France has already been implemented or is in the countdown stage. Europe was originally the largest growth market for Chinese factories, especially a large number of small factories that had almost all their production capacity bet on the European channel. Now, they have been directly cut off by the policy.
US tariffs + state bans The increase in tariffs announced by the Trump administration has been an added burden for the factories with extremely thin profit margins. More seriously, the US market has already been divided by the PMTA entry threshold and individual state bans. The sales bans in Texas and Wisconsin have forced many manufacturers to reevaluate their channel layout. Profits have declined, and compliance costs have soared, making the US no longer a "market where anyone can share a piece of the pie".
The Middle East and Southeast Asia still have market space in the short term, but they cannot accommodate "mass production runs". More importantly, regulations are also gradually tightening, with increased customs inspections, import taxes, and market access barriers. This is more like a "supplementary market" rather than a core overseas outlet that can replace Europe and the US.
A structural peak season is forming Under this background, this year's "Golden September and Silver October" is no longer likely to witness a peak season with full orders for the entire industry. But it has not completely disappeared either. Instead, it is evolving into a structural peak season:
For compliant products, centralized stockpiling of one-time replacement products in the UK TPD or through PMTA transitional licenses for brands in the US, there are still clear delivery windows. This part of the enterprises still have a peak season and it is more certain.
The small explosion in emerging markets like Mexico, Brazil, and some markets in Africa that are in a gray area, as well as some newly started markets in Africa, may have concentrated orders in the short term. The uncertainty in these markets is high, but it may also bring about a brief "peak season illusion".

The intensifying internal competition leads to a decrease in orders. Small factories find it difficult to maintain production capacity, while large factories may take advantage of their resource advantages to increase shipments and seize channel inventory. In this case, the peak season is more an opportunity for the leading players rather than a feast for the entire industry.
From industry prosperity to industry selection This can be seen that "Golden September and Silver October" has not disappeared, but has completed a role transformation. It is no longer a universal peak season for the entire industry, but has gradually evolved into a targeted peak season for the leading and compliant players.
This also means that the logic of the industry's peak season in the future will no longer be determined by the seasonal demand of consumers, but by policies, compliance, and channel control. Whoever can cross the policy cycle and stabilize compliance qualifications can hold onto or even expand their peak season in the industry differentiation.
In summary, "Golden September and Silver October" still exists, but it is more like an industry selection. The peak season is for only a few enterprises that can withstand policy cycles, possess compliance qualifications, and have the ability for market layout, rather than for all.