Exclusive interview with Euromonitor International: Disposable products will gradually withdraw from Europe next year, and Malaysia's e-cigarette bill is not a big problem

Exclusive interview with Euromonitor International: Disposable products will gradually withdraw from Europe next year, and Malaysia's e-cigarette bill is "not a big problem"

 

A senior consultant from Euromonitor International said that disposable products will gradually withdraw from the European market starting in 2025, and sales will drop significantly. If Chinese e-cigarette products want to succeed in the international market, compliance issues need to be solved urgently.

At the just-concluded Tobacco Show in Dortmund, Raphael Moreau, a senior research consultant at the market research institute Euromonitor International, gave a speech titled "Tobacco and Nicotine Industry Dynamics and Regulatory Environment" at the exhibition site. "'s speech discussed the potential of emerging markets for e-cigarettes, legislative challenges and future trends in the industry. On September 27, 2Firsts had an online communication with Rafael.

 

Raphael said that it is expected that from 2025, disposable products will gradually withdraw from the European market and sales will decline significantly. At the same time, he emphasized the compliance challenges faced by Chinese e-cigarette products in the global market, which he believed was the key to the success of Chinese products.

Raphael gave a speech at the German Exhibition｜Source: 2Firsts

Disposable e-cigarettes will gradually withdraw from the European market from 2025

When asked about the market performance of different types of new tobacco products, Raphael mentioned that Eastern Europe, Pakistan and Bangladesh are emerging markets for nicotine bag (OND) products. Especially in Pakistan, British American Tobacco (BAT)'s VELO sales are growing rapidly, and Pakistan has become the company's third largest nicotine bag market. The United States is the market with the largest sales volume of nicotine bag products, accounting for 61% of global sales.

 

Regarding heat-not-burn (HTP) products, he emphasized that Europe and Asia are regions with larger sales. The EU flavor ban may lead to a slowdown in heated tobacco sales, and the legal status of heated tobacco in the United States is still unclear.

 

Raphael mentioned that the current trend of heated tobacco is focusing on new flavors and smoke-free, emphasizing that Japan is still a market for testing new flavors.

 

When referring to electronic vaping (EVP) products, Rafael said that it is expected that from 2025, disposable e-cigarette products will gradually withdraw from the market and sales will decline significantly. He specifically mentioned that in Europe, disposable e-cigarette brands such as LOST MARY and ELFBAR are being redesigned to adapt to market demand and maintain their market compliance.

 

Raphael said that traditional tobacco still has room for growth, and whether new tobacco can replace traditional tobacco depends on legislation.

Raphael's speech at the German Exhibition | Source: 2Firsts

 

E-cigarette brand loyalty is low, IQOS Iluma's approval is a key node

 

Regarding the bankruptcy of Chinese e-cigarette companies, Raphael mentioned that part of the reason is the instability of consumer preferences and the general low brand loyalty. He pointed out in particular that with the tightening of global regulation on e-cigarettes, if Chinese e-cigarette products want to succeed in the international market, they need to solve compliance issues, which is a key issue.

 

For the US market, Raphael particularly emphasized the importance of the timing of IQOS Iluma's approval for listing, and it is expected that the product will be approved in the second half of 2025.

 

Japan, South Korea and Eastern Europe are emerging markets, and Malaysia's legislation is "quite standard"

 

Raphael pointed out that Japan, South Korea and Eastern Europe have huge market potential in the field of e-cigarettes, especially the sales of heated tobacco (HTP). With the increasingly cheaper price of equipment and convenient use, consumers in these emerging markets are gradually becoming more aware of and accepting of new tobacco products, providing a good soil for the development of the e-cigarette market.

 

In addition, he also mentioned that disposable e-cigarettes in Malaysia are expected to grow. Speaking about Malaysia's new tobacco control bill and legislative environment, Rafael said that the legislation of Malaysia's new bill is "quite standard" and it is not a big problem.