Surge By 6 Times! Stockpiling Until Death? Who Is Against The Wind Shipping Goods Frantically To The United States?

According to the latest data, in October 2025, China's monthly export volume of electronic cigarettes to the United States rebounded sharply from approximately 2,200 tons in June to approximately 14,800 tons, approaching the historical peak. This sharp fluctuation was not driven by demand but rather a "concentrated replenishment" of delayed orders under regulatory pressure, highlighting the "whip effect" risks accumulating in the supply chain.
China's export weight of electronic cigarettes to the United States from 2023 to 2025 | Source: Washington Observer
The risks are accelerating their concentration towards the upstream of the Chinese supply chain.
Under the current industry practice, American distributors typically only pay a deposit of about 10%, while the manufacturing end bears the majority of the financial pressure. At the same time, the inventory of electronic cigarettes in the United States has reached a high level. According to industry research estimates, the existing inventory of the American distributor system has exceeded 160 million cigarettes, and it takes at least three months for normal consumption. If including in-transit goods and the inventory of Chinese factories, the overall scale may reach approximately 240 million cigarettes. The high inventory will significantly prolong the collection cycle of the manufacturing end.
The pressure on funds at the end of the year intensifies the conflicting mindset of the manufacturing sector.
As the settlement period approaches for the Spring Festival, Chinese manufacturing enterprises, which are facing the dual pressures of inventory and collection, even have the expectation that the US customs will strengthen law enforcement, in the hope of temporarily blocking the inflow of new goods and accelerating the realization of existing inventory, thereby alleviating the short-term cash flow pressure.
The inventory risk may spread to the global market.
Some global traders are planning to purchase US inventories at a significant discount and resell them to emerging markets such as Africa and South America. This may lead to inventory pressure in the US market, evolving into a risk source that impacts the price systems and competitive order of multiple regions worldwide.

Long-term data discrepancies reveal structural regulatory challenges
According to the Washington Observer, in 2024, the US side's statistics showed that the amount of electronic cigarettes imported from China was approximately 333 million US dollars, while the Chinese side recorded an export amount to the US of approximately 3.7 billion US dollars, with a difference of over 10 times. Industry information indicates that the main reason for this discrepancy lies in the operation of "changing the declared product name" during the logistics process to evade regulation, resulting in a systematic misalignment of trade data, reflecting the urgency of cross-border regulatory coordination.
Currently, the real risks in the electronic cigarette trade do not merely lie in the rebound of the flow of goods, but rather in the cumulative cash flow pressure and operational risks that have persisted at the manufacturing end of the global supply chain due to the combination of regulatory cycles and industry characteristics. These risks are lagging and more difficult to be resolved through short-term market behaviors.